In 2024, over 40 countries, which account for more than 40% of the global population and a significant portion of the global GDP, are set to hold national elections. These elections will have a profound impact on shaping the future of the 21st-century world, as they will determine who holds power and influences global affairs. Interestingly, this surge in elections is occurring at a time when traditional forms of liberal democracy are facing unprecedented challenges. According to a report, political rights and civil liberties declined in 35 countries, while 34 countries witnessed overall improvements. This demonstrates that autocrats are not invincible, as corruption and a focus on political control rather than competence have exposed the limitations of authoritarian models. The United States’ internal tensions between Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump will have global implications. Europe anticipates a surge in far-right factions that could challenge the established political order and disrupt the European Union’s authority. Taiwan’s upcoming election heightens tensions in the Indo-Pacific, risking involvement from Washington and allies due to conflicts with Beijing over the disputed island. Elections in Senegal, South Africa, Mali, and Chad hold significance for shaping Africa’s multilateral institutions, while Mexico’s presidential race impacts crucial trade and border security cooperation with its northern neighbour, making it pivotal in North American politics beyond the US.
The political spectrum can be visualised as a continuum with two contrasting extremes – the left and the right. Each extreme embodies a set of principles, with those on the left often opposing those on the right. The majority of these principles revolve around determining the most effective societal organisation that promotes the well-being of individuals. This notion of the left advocating for change while the right upholds the existing state of affairs remains prevalent in contemporary times, serving as a fundamental aspect of their respective ideologies. A controversial Dutch politician, recently celebrated the unexpected success of his far-right anti-immigrant party in the Netherlands’ elections, declaring that “The genie is out of the bottle.” Similarly, a right-wing populist, secured victory as Argentina’s new president. Despite these wins, global politics vary, with the centre-left in power in Germany and the United States and a leftist reclaiming leadership in Brazil. Even in traditionally moderate regions like Scandinavia, right-wing populism is gaining ground. While some might view these shifts with detachment, the rise of ultra-nationalism, racism, and intolerance poses a danger. Many advocates for containing this trend as it should be kept in the bottle, recognising the potential threat it poses to Western democracy and the world at large.
Here are some countries and the key issues dominating their upcoming elections:
United Kingdom (UK): In the UK, major issues in the elections might revolve around Brexit fallout and its economic consequences, NHS (National Health Service) funding and management, housing crisis, climate change policies, and immigration reforms. Incumbent party: Conservative (right-wing). Leading challenger: Labour (centre-left).
United States (US): In the US, key issues could include the handling of COVID-19 and public health policies, economic recovery post-pandemic, racial justice reforms, climate change initiatives, immigration policies, and geopolitical challenges. Incumbent party: Democratic (left-wing). Challenger: Republican (right-wing).
Portugal: In Portugal, the elections might centre on economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare reforms, housing affordability, education improvements, climate change mitigation, and social welfare enhancements. Incumbent party: Socialist (centre-left). Challengers: Social Democratic Party (centre-right), Chega (right – far right)
Austria: Economy and job creation, Climate change and environmental policies, Immigration and integration, Healthcare reforms, Education system improvements, Housing affordability, Social welfare and inequality, Security and public safety, EU relations and integration and Governance and political reforms. Incumbent: Austrian People’s Party (right-wing). Challengers: Social Democratic Party (centre-left), Freedom Party (right-wing), The Greens (centre-left), The New Austria and Liberal Forum (centrist).
Canada: Climate change, healthcare, economic recovery post-pandemic, and indigenous rights are likely to be significant issues in the Canadian elections. Incumbent party: Liberal (left-wing). Challengers: Conservative (right-wing), Bloc Québécois (centre-left).
European Parliament election: environmental concerns, climate change mitigation strategies, and the implementation of ambitious environmental policies, such as the European Green Deal, may remain significant electoral issues. Addressing economic disparities among EU member states, migration and border policies, EU Integration vs. National Sovereignty, Digital Transformation and Regulation, and Security and Defence Cooperation, Social Issues and Welfare Policies, as well as EU Institutional Reforms. Challenger: European People’s Party Group (Germany, centre-right), Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (Spain, centre-left), Renew Europe (France, centre-left), Greens/European Free Alliance (French Belgium, left-wing), Identity and Democracy (Italy, far-right), European Conservatives and Reformists (Italy, far-right).
Russia: Economy and economic reforms, Foreign policy and relations with the West, Security and defence strategies, Human rights and civil liberties, Corruption and governance, Healthcare system improvements, Education reforms, Social welfare and inequality, national identity and cultural policies and Energy policies and resources. Incumbent: Putin (independent). Challengers: Communist Party (left-wing), Liberal Democratic Party (far-right), New People (centre-right).
Indonesia: In the midst of a transitional period, investors are adopting a cautious stance to assess the potential influence of the election on capital relocation and industrial investment. While voter attention has been primarily on the presidential election, legislative polls have received less focus. Over four-fifths of Indonesia’s existing parliament consists of coalition parties, limiting space for opposition representation. The upcoming leaders must navigate various geopolitical challenges, particularly Jakarta’s ties with Beijing. The closer relationship has raised apprehensions about debt-trap scenarios and the potential influx of Chinese labour into Indonesia. Incumbent party: Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (centre-left). Challengers: Advanced Indonesia Coalition (centre-right), Coalition of Change for Unity (centre-right).
Pakistan: economic challenges, energy crisis, security and terrorism, political stability and governance, social services and infrastructure. Incumbent party: Pakistan Muslim League (centre-right). Challenger: Pakistan People’s Party (centre-left).
India: economic recovery post-pandemic, agriculture reforms, job creation, healthcare improvements, national security concerns (especially in relation to border tensions with China and Pakistan), and environmental conservation. Incumbent party: Bharatiya Janata Party (right-wing). Challenger: Indian National Congress (centrist).
Turkey: economic challenges, foreign policy and regional relations, security and terrorism, human rights and freedom of speech, cultural and identity politics. Incumbent: Justice and Development Party (right-wing). Challengers: Republican People’s Party (centre-left), Good Party (centre-right).
Taiwan: cross-strait relations, national security and defence, economic growth and trade, youth and education, democratic reforms and government, gender equality and social issues. Incumbent: Democratic Progressive Party (centre-left). Challengers: Kuomintang (centre-right), Taiwan People’s Party (centre-left).
South Africa: economic challenges, corruption and government, land reform, social issues, COVID-19 recovery. Incumbent party: African National Congress (left-wing). Challenger: Democratic Alliance (left-wing).
Romania: Corruption and governance reforms, Economic development and job creation, Healthcare system improvements, Education reforms and investment, Infrastructure development, European Union relations and integration, Agriculture and rural development, Environmental protection and sustainability, Social welfare and poverty alleviation, and Judicial system reforms. Incumbent: National Liberal Party (centre-right). Challengers: Social Democratic Party (left-wing), Save Romania Union (centre-right), People’s Movement Party (right-wing), Force of the Right (centre-right).
Tech-related capabilities to watch out for
For ages, the electoral system has continuously evolved towards increased transparency and adaptability. With the progression from radio to television and the internet, politicians have subjected themselves to greater scrutiny. Although AI has the potential to streamline campaigns, it also poses a threat by enabling the concealment of candidates behind highly personalised, targeted messages. This development is a result of historical trajectories and deliberate political decisions, whether taken or ignored. AI itself is not a novel concept, yet without altering our course – establishing precise guidelines, empowering our judiciary while there’s still an opportunity – upcoming elections might witness a loss of sovereignty that we must brace ourselves to confront. Over the course of history, efforts have been made to manipulate media to influence election outcomes, prompting the creation of laws that targeted impersonation long before the internet era. Political campaigns have consistently adapted to technological advancements, starting with political advertisements in the mid-20th century and extending to recent innovations such as anonymous cryptocurrency donations. However, the emergence of highly realistic AI-generated visuals, videos, and voices presents unprecedented challenges for both campaign strategies and policymakers. These challenges might potentially fall under existing laws governing AI-generated content. Looking ahead to the forthcoming elections, terms like “deepfake,” “synthetic media,” or “deceptive media” related to AI are likely to be heavily employed. While these terms generally encompass the common understanding of AI’s impact, their implications could diverge based on their statutory definitions and the awareness of the electorate.